My Conspiracy Theory

1)In under 10 years, Israel will, hopefully, no longer be considered the 'only' democracy in the Middle East by the U.S.

2)Unfortunately, this will likely happen by contriving them - not cultivating them - through a redefinition of the key concepts of democracy, while deemphasising those undemocratic indicators in the entire region (recent Newsweek cover suggests Westerners in America become receptive not simply to conventional Islam or Muslims, but to Islamicists, those who foster "Greater Dar-al Islam" - people whom only last year were spoken of as the 'treif' muslims who harbored terrorists).

3)To give these developing democracies a boost, they will be granted a privileged status above Israel, which will no longer have strategic significance (U.S. and allied forces are already all over the region - why rely on an independent - and independently-minded..nation for oil security?...oops, I mean political stability?).

4)Within 10-12 years, American Jews of the "Chardal" variety - the good number of Olim - will come to the fore in Israeli society and politics (I, II). As already evidenced in their willing community activism in America - fluency with court systems and democratic government to optimize their place - they will be better prepared than indigenous Charedim for a 'bigger picture' political influence in Israel - where the indigenous Charedi political blocs are of influence and control within Israel's borders. These indigenous Charedim - with an under-employed, system-dependent (and system-reviling...) constituency - have still managed to gain hegemony over the Rabbinut. This is already the case - minus the stronger presence of American olim in Israeli government positions. And this is where Israeli internal societal politics do have an influence outside Israel's borders (the recent Conversion court debacles, shmitta, etc.

5)Here's where it gets really speculative. American Chardalim, more savvy with secular government, will facilitate stronger Charedi preeminence outside the Rabbinut as well. Where many currently speculate that these Chardal Olim will bring "positive", Western expectations (such as the value of gainful employment, financial independence - the "American Dream"...), to their Israel brethren - the influence might go both ways. Formerly-American Chardalim, tasting the convenience of Welfare State sustainance (and hearing the footsteps of Moshiach resounding through their own footsteps, as they walk through the halls of government), may seek to cast off the 'necessary evil' of fluency in secular life and education. Formerly necessary to afford religious life and education in Chutz l'Aretz - they nay find the 'value' in controlling and exploiting Israeli state-sponsored religious school systems, welfare structures, etc. Israel could become a haven for western and non-muslim out-sourced labor, who will be doing more and more of even the white-collar daily business of life (a la Saudi Arabi), as another 'necessary evil' - tolerance of Arab populations - will be no longer 'necessary'.

6)This shift to the "Right" (now both religiously, socially, demographically, and hense politically), will alienate others - "Dati Leumi/Masorati" and secular - will largely accomodate in the former case, or leave in the latter, reassimilating to Chutz l'Aretz. This will exacerbate anti-Semitism the world over, as places 'Judenrein' will suddenly have dissaffected Israeli Jewish populations of various religious hews seeking a 'better life'...oddly familiar to other recent immigrant populations from the region.

7)These newly-Israeli Chardalim will, in messianic fervor, possibly engineer military exemption for a large portion of the Charedi population - the only Jewish segment of the population that is growing...which will almost invariably militate for a professional, standing military. This is in contrast to both the views of Torah and lhvd'l, many of America's Founding Fathers - who mandated in the former case and preferred in the latter - an armed, trained and generally obligated militia comprised of the general population; with Torah, this obligation was on Klal Israel - women as well.

8)The remaining Israel will appear to much of the world as not unlike an Iran/Saudi-style clerical regime (a world which often believes it to be a theocracy), albeit by ballot not bullets. As the orbit of Middle Eastern policy on the part of the U.S. shifts, this Israel will be even more an 'outsider', open to criticism, antipathy and sanctions. Other models of 'moderate' Torah Judaism - not unlike has occurred with moderate manifestations of Islam - would be stiffled in Israel and elsewhere, where tolerance of "anti-Zionism" will have long ago (meaning now with the engineered success of "Pop-Secularism" and anti-religion), made space for tolerance of "anti-Judaism". non-Jews would likewise suspect even religious moderates and fervently-secular Israeli Jews of harboring support for this Israel... Enter an earlier conspiracy theory of mine.

In just about all it's principles, Chardal Judaism could be read as a quintessential post-modern movement;

-The would be resoundingly politically fluent, in contradiction to their Charedi Gedolim (who historically condemn zealous involvement with the secular government - Israeli or otherwise -oppose Zionism, oppose secular education in most situations, etc).

-In their Chardisimo, they would be in opposition to the moderation of Mizrachi founders of "Dati Leumi" Religious Zionism (who early held positions of Arab/Jewish statehood, advocacy of Democratic principles, separation of Synagogue/State; Zionism as historically significant but not Messianic as such).

-In importing goyishe 'democracy' to Israel, they would be in contradiction to the frequent counsel of one of their primary figures - Meir Kahane.